In the recent 2025 National Basketball Association (NBA) tournament, the Indiana Pacers played against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder won the series 4-3, resulting in a devastating loss for Hoosiers across the state and Pacers fans across the country alike.
In the first half of Game 7, star player Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his Achilles tendon in a painful watch for many viewers. This fateful event led basketball fans across the country pondering the same question: Would the Indiana Pacers have won if Haliburton had not been injured?
Indulging in this exploration of an alternative history – in which the Pacers had won the 2025 NBA finals – has multiple layers to it such as the historic nature of the win, as well as the short-term and long-term impacts on Indiana’s economy.
Since the Pacers joined the NBA in 1967, the franchise had not won a single championship, though they got close in 2000 when Reggie Miller, averaging 24.3 points per game during the series, led them to their first NBA Finals. The outcome was a 4-2 loss to the LA Lakers led by Shaquille O’Neal. Since then, the Pacers have been working to rebuild their brand, experiencing temporary successes and setbacks. That all changed in 2025 when the Pacers made it to the NBA finals for the second time.
Alex Cuevas and Fernando Flores are both studying sports management at IUI and work for the Pacers under the Crowd Management division and Guest Experience Services, respectively. From behind-the-scenes, they could feel the shift in energy.
“A big part of the energy being different was just because it had been 25 years since we had been in the Finals…I wasn’t even born the last time we were in the Finals,” said Cuevas.
Flores agrees, adding that the Finals run was especially significant for Hoosiers.
“Everybody remembers what Reggie Miller did to the Pacers to take us there,” said Flores. “And here we are again, going back to the same journey.”
Thus, a Pacers win would have been monumental, potentially making the “Crossroads of America” a sports hotspot, especially supplemented by the increasing support and attention given to the WNBA’s Fever Team and Caitlyn Clark’s rise to fame.
Naptown would have been woken up with such a win. Parades would block streets downtown; Hoosiers would travel from across the state to celebrate their newfound pride; and local restaurants, hotels and attractions would be backed up entertaining such a historic win.
“People would want to be able to say that they were a part of that experience,” said Cuevas.
The immediate economic impact would be seen in local businesses, the hospitality industry, merchandise and retail, tourism, as well as media and marketing through national and even global exposure.
Mahir Islam is a political science major at IUI. He’s always loved learning about the government and history. And the Pacers run in the NBA Finals is no exception.
“Hospitality would have boomed quite a bit… hotels, restaurants, anything just hospitality related,” said Islam.
“A big part of that economic boom would have been if we had won. A championship parade — just because a lot of people all over Indiana would have wanted to be here for that parade,” said Cuevas, “but I think it also would have drawn in a lot of fans outside of Indiana because it would be the first one in franchise history. Anyone that would have been there would have been a part of history.”
Long-term, the Pacers would have experienced an increase in franchise valuation and team investment, while the state of Indiana would see a rise in civic pride, urban development, and potential investments in sports infrastructure.
Using basic economic multipliers from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), sports economics reports, spending patterns derived from tourism bureau data, NBA finals reports and city hosting analyses, the projected economic impact a NBA Finals win by the Pacers would have on the State of Indiana can be estimated.
Assuming that 4-6 home games occurred during the Finals and that 2-3 rounds of playoffs preceded that, a comparative analysis would show that local business revenue would have a $50-55 million value. This uses a benchmark of the Milwaukee Bucks who won the 2021 NBA Finals, reporting a $57 million economic impact. This can partially be attributed to arena sizes, as Gainbridge Fieldhouse has a slightly smaller seating capacity as compared to Milwaukee Fiserv Forum.
Additionally, looking at past Final Four/NCAA tournament data, it can be estimated that over 3,000 hotel rooms would be booked throughout the duration of the 4-6 games; that there would be $2-3 million revenue in food and beverage per night; and that Pacers watch parties and events would generate $10-15 million in revenue.
Considering the Cleveland Cavaliers’ $80 million revenue in citywide spending and tourism after the 2016 playoff run, it can be estimated that Indianapolis would get $65-75 million, with national fans traveling to the state and media crews flying in to report on the event. Taxi and transportation providers as well as rentals (e.g. AirBnbs) would increase, and the use of entertainment venues would also add to the revenue increases.
WIth all the sales in merchandise, food, and hospitality, tax revenue would also change, with a $5-8 million increase estimate given Indiana’s 7% sales tax. Occupancy taxes from hotels and hospitality (typically calculated as percentage of the room rate itself) and jock taxes (an income tax imposed by the state on professional athletes, support staff, and even journalists and their broadcast crews) would also contribute to this increase in tax revenue.
A championship win typically boosts team valuations significantly. Following their 2021 title, the Milwaukee Bucks saw a ~15% increase. Based on Forbes’ valuation models, the Pacers – currently valued at approximately $1.8 billion – could reasonably expect a post-title valuation in the $2.1 to $2.2 billion range.
Championships consistently drive a surge in merchandise sales as well, often increasing by 300-400%, as was the case for Denver and Milwaukee when their teams won the Finals. For the Pacers, this could translate into $15-20 million in merchandise revenue nationwide via online platforms, local sports retailers, and licensed distribution.
These economic impacts would allow for an estimated increase in job opportunity, with 1,500 to 2,000 short term jobs to assist in event staffing, security, concessions, restaurants, etc.
The larger implications of this hypothetical economic shift would reap both negative and positive results.
Indiana would see urban revitalization and investments in the downtown area, incentivizing local establishments and pushing for public infrastructure improvements. Also, Indianapolis would be put on the map as a tourist destination for sports conventions and events. Tax revenue could also be reinvested back into Indiana communities, and the higher franchise valuation would attract greater investment to support that.
“I think people now know what’s going on in Indiana… especially because with a lot of sports, it’s the big-market teams that get the attention,” said Islam.
On the flip side, there is a temporary nature to this impact, with much of the hospitality and entertainment revenue returning to a baseline after the excitement tapers off. The estimated 1,500 to 2,000 in job creations would fade away, as it was meant to account for the increased need of part-time staffers and gig-based roles. Additionally, there would be no long-term guarantee of lasting capital the same way there is in infrastructure projects, for instance.
The success in sports could also accelerate urban redevelopment as it has done in the past, which could increase property values around Gainbridge Fieldhouse and other areas downtown. This could price-out residents who have lived in these communities for a long time, effectively perpetuating cycles of gentrification. This occurred in Brooklyn near Barclays Center and in Inglewood's SoFi Stadium, setting a precedent that unless managed through policy, community displacement would be inevitable.
“It just tends to be – from a political standpoint – it ends up being much easier to kick out all the people from a low-income neighborhood,” said Islam.
While a win would potentially be used to justify upgrading Gainbridge Fieldhouse or investing in related fees, tax payers may create backlash over the misallocation of their dollars, as these resources could be better spent on more urgent matters like healthcare and education.
“I don’t think that’s fair to the public… especially those businesses. Hiking the price with any tax that could possibly be avoided – it's better to avoid that,” said Islam.
The benefit would also not be evenly distributed, as hotels, luxury establishments and franchises would feel the money-bearing brunt of this economic boom, pulling local businesses down to an economic disadvantage.
An NBA Finals win for the Pacers would have been much bigger, heavier, and more significant than any trophy or financial boost. Beyond the numbers lies something more meaningful: legacy.
“Once the game happens, we are all united, we forget about our problems, we forget about everything, put our differences aside, and we unite,” said Flores. “Because this whole team — this whole game — is more than just a game, it’s more about who we are and what we represent and the community that we build as a whole.”
The newfound pride and cultural identity of Indiana basketball after a Finals win would keep Indiana a part of the national sports narrative and reframe how the rest of the country perceives Indiana.
“I think they really proved that this year: that they are a team that should be feared. That they’re a team that can win games and they can make deep runs in the playoffs,” said Cuevas.
Back to reality, even as the Pacers did not win the 2025 NBA finals, they accomplished something much greater: a sense of belonging, belief and Hoosier pride in a state-wide team that hasn’t been felt since 2000.
Salsabil F. Qaddoura is an undergraduate student on a pre-law track with a minor in business, and a topic editor for The Campus Citizen. She is passionate about public service and volunteerism to better our communities and the world.
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