With the Academy Awards taking place on March 15, 2026, the acting categories seem to be close to shaping the way for a winner after a competitive award season, in which the Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress had different winners at the Golden Globes, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards. However, for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley seems to have secured herself her maiden Oscar win after a major sweep in the award season. The unsettled Oscar races have raised questions such as: Will Timothée Chalamet finally get his long-desired Oscar? Will Amy Madigan bring the golden statuette back to the horror genre? Will Sean Penn win his third Oscar? With that being said, I present who I believe are the dark horses, the snubbed nominations and the winners at this Oscars edition.
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
- Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
- Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
- Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
The Best Actor race has been quite a roller coaster. However, history will be made, regardless of the winner.
For this category, the front-runner has changed sporadically from Timothée Chalamet, to a possible upset by Wagner Moura, and now to Michael B. Jordan. These three have major precursor awards to back up their case of becoming an Oscar winner, but Chalamet and Jordan have the strongest ones. Chalamet started the awards season with a Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards for Best Actor. Until then, he was the favorite to take it all.
Then, the BAFTA arrived and none of the nominees listed won the award for Best Actor. Instead, the award went to Robert Aramayo for “I Swear” with a performance that should make him a serious contender for the next Oscars.
At the SAG awards, Jordan was the winner for Best Actor over Chalamet, demonstrating that voters may have shifted toward Jordan as their Oscar favorite. It is important to note that the winners at the BAFTA and SAG awards overlap the most with the Oscar results out of the major precursors.
Prior to the Oscars, a few voting ballots were revealed and the recent ones show Jordan leading the race, followed by Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another.” Nevertheless, take this with a grain of salt, as it’s just a very small number of ballots that have been revealed, while thousands of them remain unknown.
A very fair list of nominees for this category, in which the addition of Jesse Plemons for “Bugonia” would’ve fit perfectly, as his performance was not inferior to anyone on the list.
Whoever wins Best Actor in this edition makes history. If Chalamet wins, he would be the first Oscar winner without winning the BAFTA or SAG since Sean Penn for “Mystic River” in 2003. If Jordan wins it, he would be the first Oscar winner whose only precursory win was the SAG. If Moura wins, he would be the first Oscar winner without being nominated for the BAFTA or SAG. If either DiCaprio or Ethan Hawke win, they would be the first winners without an industry award prior to the Oscars.
The Dark Horse: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Snubbed from nomination: Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Who will win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
- Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
- Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
- Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
- Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
The Best Actress category appears to already have a clear winner: Jessie Buckley for “Hamnet.”
Buckley swept in the awards season, winning every award possible for the Best Actress category according to the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, BAFTA and SAG.
Historically, major sweeps such as this one often lead to an Oscar win just as it was seen with Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain” and Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Perez” in the previous Oscar ceremony.
In case there is an upset, it would be done by Rose Byrne for “If I had Legs I’d Kick You” with an amazing performance that unfortunately went without awards due to Jessie Buckley’s dominance in the award season.
An actress who would have fit into this list of nominees is Eva Victor for “Sorry, Baby.”
The Dark Horse: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Snubbed from nomination: Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Who will win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
- Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
- Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
- Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
The Best Supporting Actor is a category with a similar race to Best Actor. A volatile race in which the front-runner has changed throughout the course of the awards season. However, Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another” has built himself a very strong argument that could see him earn his third Oscar win.
The Supporting Actor race began with Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value” as the front-runner with his Golden Globes win. Later, Jacob Elordi, for “Frankenstein,” joined the race after his Critics' Choice Awards win. Prior to the BAFTA awards, it was believed one of them would win, but Sean Penn’s win at the BAFTA took everyone by surprise and changed the course of the Oscar race. That win wasn’t a surprise anymore when Sean Penn later went on to win Best Supporting Actor at the SAG Awards.
As noted earlier, the BAFTA and SAG are the precursor awards that overlap the most with who is the eventual Oscar winner.
The Best Supporting Actor race went from being a wide debate between most of the nominees in the list, to now having one very likely winner, Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another.”
Just like the Best actor list of nominees brought with it doubt and sporadic changes in who the front-runners were, this category remained uncertain throughout the award season.
The Dark Horse: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Snubbed from nomination: No one snubbed from nomination.
Who will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another.”
Best Supporting Actress
- Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
- Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
- Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
The Best Supporting category is in a three-way split.
The race is being led by Amy Madigan for “Weapons” after winning the Critics' Choice Awards and SAG for Best Supporting Actress. The SAG win strengthens Madigan’s argument in winning the Oscars. In the case Madigan wins the Oscar, it would mean a significant win for the horror genre.
Madigan is followed by Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners” as her performance earned her a BAFTA.
Another contender is Teyana Taylor for “One Battle After Another,” who won at the Golden Globes for Best Supporting Actress.
For this category, the race seems to be tight, with voters swaying toward Madigan as their Best Supporting Actress out of the five nominees. Madigan has a high chance of winning, but the door for an upset remains open, in which Mosaku for “Sinners” has the potential of pulling off.
An actress who would've been a great addition to this list is Odessa A’Zion for “Marty Supreme,” as her performance added unpredictability and emotional sharpness to the film, making her a perfect fit for this list of nominees.
The Dark Horse: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Snubbed from nomination: Odessa A’Zion, “Marty Supreme”
Who will win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons.”
The indecisiveness from cinephiles in three out of the four major acting categories reflect the high-caliber performances that were nominated for this year's Academy Awards. It shows how competitive and unpredictable the award season can be when several nominees have strong arguments supporting a possible Oscar win. Even though the Best Actress category seems to already have a clear winner, Jesse Buckley for "Hamnet," the other acting categories remain unsettled and with the chance of possible upsets happening at the Oscar ceremony.
Emiliano Magana is a freshman studying economics with a minor in business and a public affairs certificate. He likes to watch films in his spare time and review them with his friends.
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