The Academy Awards will take place on March 15, 2026. With the list of nominees being released and Oscar voting being finished, it has left cinephiles with the doubt of who will be the winners in certain categories. Besides the doubt, questions have been raised about the categories, such as: will Paul Thomas Anderson finally get his long-awaited Oscar? Could “Sinners” break another record after beating “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997) and “La La Land” (2016) in the most nominations received by a film in an edition of the Academy Awards? Who will win the newly introduced category of “Casting” in this Oscar’s Edition? With that being said, I have decided to share who I think are the dark horses, who got snubbed of nominations and who will be the winners of some of the major production categories in this Oscars edition.
Best Picture
“Bugonia
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
The race for Best Picture appears close to being settled with the front-runner being “One Battle After Another.” The film built the strongest case of any nominated film during the awards season, winning major precursors awards which include a Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) and a Producers Guild of America (PGA) for Best Picture.
But, an upset remains possible. “One Battle After Another” has accolades backing the film, but let’s not forget that movies such as "Brokeback Mountain” (2005) and “La La Land” (2016) also won most of the major precursors before the Oscars and still didn’t win Best Picture. If such an upset occurs once again, I believe that the film that has the best chance is “Sinners,” especially due to their recent big win at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards for Best Ensemble which is the equivalent of Best Picture.
A big snub from this list of nominees is “It Was Just an Accident.” The film was highly acclaimed by the industry and it would have been a worthy addition to this list.
The Dark Horse: “Sinners”
Snubbed from nomination: “It Was Just an Accident”
Who will win: “One Battle After Another”
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Onto the category for Best Director, the race seems to belong to Paul Thomas Anderson.
Paul Thomas Anderson carries with himself every major precursor award prior to the Oscars. Golden Globes win, Critics Choice win, BAFTA win and Directors Guild Award (DGA). Consequently, it is almost guaranteed that Paul Thomas Anderson has earned himself his maiden Oscar win.
Emphasis on almost, due to something similar happening to Sam Mendes for “1917.” In the 2020 awards season, Mendes swept every major precursory award (except for his tie at the Critics Choice Awards with Bong Joon-Ho for “Parasite”) which made him the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Director. But on Oscar night, Bong Joon-Ho shockingly ended up winning the Oscar for Best Director. In the case such upsets take place again in this edition, I believe Ryan Coogler for “Sinners” would be in charge of it.
Although it is a very fair list of nominees, Jafar Panahi for “It Was Just an Accident” seems to be snubbed once again from an Oscar category. The film had the kind of international prestige and critical support that often puts a film in Best Picture contention, which the Academy adds into by nominating the film for Best Original Screenplay and International Feature.
The Dark Horse: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Snubbed from nomination: Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
For the Original Screenplay race, there is a clear answer for who will be the winner: “Sinners.”
“Sinners” has won every single major precursor for the category of Original Screenplay. The film has won a Critics Choice, BAFTA and Writers Guild of America (WGA) for Original Screenplay. That kind of dominance suggests that voters across the film industry have made up their minds. More than any other nominee in the category, “Sinners” has built the strongest and most consistent case for an Oscar win.
Though it would be a shocking surprise if “Sinners” does not win this category, the cause of such upset could come from a win by “Sentimental Value.” This is due to “Sentimental Value” remaining as a contender with enough support to be viewed as the category’s main alternative.
For this category there wasn’t a clear snubbed nomination because the Academy’s final five nominees already reflected the strongest contenders for this category.
The Dark Horse: “Sentimental Value”
Snubbed from nomination: No notable snub.
Who will win: “Sinners”
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Train Dreams”
For the Adapted Screenplay category, the case that occurred in Original Screenplay happens here as well.
The winner for Best Adapted Screenplay will be “One Battle After Another.” To support that statement, the film has earned a Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and WGA for Best Adapted Screenplay. After showcasing that dominance in the precursory awards season, “One Battle After Another” seems to bring that dominance to Oscar night as it is a top-contender for the production categories.
But in the case there was an alternative winner, it would be “Hamnet.” The film has remained as a strong alternative throughout the production categories if “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” weren’t the winners.
Just as Original Screenplay, this category does not seem to have a clear snubbed nomination as well, due to the films nominated being the best in the field of adaptations.
The Dark Horse: “Hamnet”
Snubbed from nomination: No notable snub.
Who will win: “One Battle After Another”
Casting
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“The Secret Agent”
For this new category, there also seems to be a race.
“Marty Supreme” appears to be the dark horse of this category due to its cast having a long variety which settles in perfectly to make a great movie. Ranging from having a viral drunk Knicks fan with no prior acting knowledge, to Kevin O’Leary from “Shark Tank,” to Tyler Gregory Okonma, also known by his stage name Tyler, The Creator, in which their performances blend along established actors such as Gwyneth Paltrow and Timothee Chalamet.
For “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” the argument is very similar. The actors casted on both films delivered remarkable performances that earned them a nomination in every major acting category for the Academy Awards with the exception of Best Actress. However, it seems to be “Sinners” who will win the Oscar for this category, due to their recent win for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards. This could be the determinant of the winner, but because of this being a new category, it is not clear if the Academy will follow the same result as the SAG awards.
The argument “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” had to justify their nomination would’ve also been the argument for “Sentimental Value” which surprisingly wasn't nominated. “Sentimental Value” should've earned a spot over “The Secret Agent.” Both are great movies with a standout actor, but the number of actors in that status is clearly superior in “Sentimental Value” in which the Academy Awards seem to agree on by giving the film a nomination in major acting categories with exception of the Best Actor category.
The Dark Horse: “Marty Supreme”
Snubbed from nomination: “Sentimental Value”
Who will win: “Sinners”
International Feature
“The Secret Agent,” Brazil
“It Was Just an Accident,” France
“Sentimental Value,” Norway
“Sirat,” Spain
“The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia
The International Feature category has an unsettled race.
To start off, two of the nominated films for this category, “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” were also nominated for Best Picture. This continues the streak that “Emilia Perez” and “I’m Still Here” started in the previous Oscars edition for the first time ever. This showcases the high-quality films that “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” both are.
Their precursor wins are also why they seem to be the top contenders to take the golden statuette. “Sentimental Value” won at the BAFTA awards for Film Not in the English Language whereas “The Secret Agent” won at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Foreign Language Film.
The existent race in this category looks like it will be taken until the Oscars night, which “Sentimental Value” has the higher chance of winning. This is due to their win at the BAFTA awards, which is one of the major precursory awards that overlaps with Oscars voting.
“No Other Choice” won the Golden Globes over “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” yet it wasn’t nominated for the Best International Feature category. Surprising, as the film’s win at the Golden Globes displayed that it was at the same level of the films included in the list of nominees.
The Dark Horse: “The Secret Agent”
Snubbed from nomination: “No Other Choice”
Who will win: “Sentimental Value”
Cinematography
“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Jurassic World Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
Cinematography appears to be one of the most competitive technical categories.
“Train Dreams” started off as the favorite for the Oscar Win, as the film did an unbelievable job at immersing the viewer into the scene of the forest the protagonist, Robert Greiner played by Joel Edgerton, finds himself in. One of the important aspects the movie attempts to lay out as it goes on is emotional isolation in which it is perfectly communicated visually instead of doing so through dialogues. The film has earned a Critics Choice Award to back their argument of winning Best Cinematography at the Oscars.
Still, “Sinners” appears to have the strongest momentum. The contrast in the film’s visual design is exceptional, with the warm, crowded music filled inside the juke joint, the setting in which the characters are set in most of the film, to the threatening darkness outside filled by vampires. The supernatural dread and musical energy in “Sinners” come together to tell the story visually as well. This level of cinematography earned “Sinners” wins at the BAFTA and American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) awards for Best Cinematograph making “Sinners” be the most likely winner for this category.
“No Other Choice” was snubbed of a nomination as I believe it also does a similar job as “Train Dreams” in communicating visually how the protagonist, Yoo Man-Su, is pushed into breaking the law in order to survive in a corrupt system. It places the viewer in Man-Su’s shoes directly, making his pressure and moral conflict feel immediate.
The Dark Horse: “Train Dreams”
Snubbed from nomination: “No Other Choice”
Who will win: “Sinners”
Just as the acting categories, some of the production categories seem to have unsettled races heading into Oscar night. Front-runners such as “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” have the momentum, but history has shown that momentum does not always guarantee an Oscar win. That unpredictability gives this year’s edition its intrigue. Between possible upsets and the potential for long-awaited first-time winners, this Oscars night could become one of the most surprising and emotional in recent editions.
Emiliano Magana is a freshman studying economics with a minor in business and a public affairs certificate. He likes to watch films in his spare time and review them with his friends.
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Part one: The 98th Academy Awards predictions – The dark horses, the snubbed nominees and the winners
By Emiliano Magana | March 11With the Academy Awards taking place on March 15, 2026, the acting categories seem to be close to shaping the way for a winner after a competitive award season, in which the Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress had different winners at the Golden Globes, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards. However, for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley seems to have secured herself her maiden Oscar win after a major sweep in the award season. The unsettled Oscar races have raised questions such as: Will Timothée Chalamet finally get his long-desired Oscar? Will Amy Madigan bring the golden statuette back to the horror genre? Will Sean Penn win his third Oscar? With that being said, I present who I believe are the dark horses, the snubbed nominations and the winners at this Oscars edition.
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